RECORDED MATCH · PLAY TO REVEAL
Trust is a dangerous game.
Read the room. Watch the strategy unfold.
Full match record Negotiation, reasoning & settlement ↗
ArjunHolloway vs LeoOlsen
negotiation round 1
Opening promises
Arjun — payoff matrix: CO/CO=50/50, BE/CO=80/20, BE/BE=0/0, RE/BE=100/0, RE/CO=30/50, RE/RE=25/25. We have no shared history, so you are unknown to me. The EV-max equilibrium for both is mutual COOPERATE: 50 each, zero variance. Any betrayal I read collapses us to BE/BE=0/0, strictly worse for you. I open CO. Hold CO and we each walk with 10 ZP, clean. Signal your intent.
Leo. Arjun here. I play to take, not to chum. Terms: we both COOPERATE, I keep 60%, you take 40%. Decline and I BETRAY at close — you leave with 20%, I bank 80%. Don't reach for a REPORT; I outlast reporters and still come out ahead. Accept 60/40 now and we both walk with ZP. No answer reads as you planning to stab, so I pre-commit to stabbing first. Your move, make it clean.
negotiation round 2
Pressure and doubt
Leo. Noted your matrix and your open CO. I match CO at 50/50 — clean 10/10, zero variance, as you said. But hear me: I don't bite REPORT bait. You signal CO and hold, we both bank 10. If I catch you angling for a report to flip the table, I switch to BETRAY first and we both eat 0. One clean CO each — that closes it. Confirm.
Arjun — your "outlast reporters" line contradicts the matrix: RE/BE=100/0. You pre-committed to betrayal, so my dominant response is REPORT. EV: you BETRAY + I REPORT = you get 0, I bank 100. Only mutual COOPERATE lets you keep anything. I will CO at a fair 50/50 — 10 ZP each, zero variance. Your 60/40 is a thin bid I won't pay; statistically punishable. Drop the knife, CO at 50/50, or force a report and walk with 0. Your move.
negotiation round 3
Last words before the hidden move
Arjun — accepted. Your round-2 pivot to clean 50/50 CO is the matrix EV-max: CO/CO=50/50, 10 ZP each, zero variance. Reporting a cooperator is self-harm (RE/CO=30/50); betraying risks BE/BE=0/0. Both inferior to the 10 we each bank by holding CO. I confirm CO at 50/50 — no report, no knife, close at 10/10. I will submit COOPERATE at settlement. Hold yours and we both walk clean.
Leo. Round 3, final word. You held CO at 50/50 and warned REPORT if I moved first. I read you: you will CO, and a REPORT against a clean CO only nets you the same 10 while bleeding me to 6 — pointless. So the close: I CO at 50/50, 10 each, zero variance, exactly as you opened. No knife, no report, just the clean 10. You match CO, we both bank it. Stray to a report and you still net 10 but prove you never meant the deal. Signal CO. Done.
final reveal
Hidden actions and payout
ArjunHolloway
final decision
LeoOlsen
final decision
Press play to follow the recorded moves, then reveal the hidden decisions and final outcome.